Friday, August 20, 2010

New Direction?

Yesterday the SP500 moved to a new August low of 1076 (-1.7%) on poor unemployment data and news from the Philly Fed Chairman. It's rare that the market responds negatively to bad news these days but there just isn't anything to cheer about. There have been some positive earnings news this week but it has mostly been a mixed bag.

The news today; "Treasury yields reach new lows on safe haven shift." This has been the main factor I've been sitting on to maintain my short bias.

On investools, the SP500 maketforecast chart has the intermediate line moving lower (has just recently moved from overbought to reversal) and the near-term line reversed before entering overbought. They interpret this as short-term negative.

TZA - I'm going to remain in TZA this morning since the daily and 2-day is below TL (Trend Line). The weekly price is split between my TL (1030 bullish) and Allan's TL (1132 bearish). but the vortex(14) is still short. ITools SP500 posture is bearish (3 red arrows on 8/14ish).

So far, this morning the futures are -.6% indicating a lower start.

Positions:
HAR 30.50 (short): IT has 2 G arrows and positive insider trading. 2day TL still short and sitting just below 20 MA. Daily TL short. I'm behind 1% so let's see how the morning goes.

JDSU 10.37 (short): point higher premarket. TL daily and 2day short. Itools still short with heavy -ITrading. Keep watching.

MMRF .12: 2 red arrows, price pattern .5. I need a move to .14 to get profitable. I'll wait for now. No bounce on positive earnings and no news expected. Not good here.

NNVC 1.28. Price pattern at 4.0. Let's watch

BVN 37.90 Between TLs Vortex tied. Red arrow on MA. Price pattern 4.0. Is this a toss up or what. Down 1.75%. Hanging on for more direction.

MON Got out at 59.19 now at 56.87 premarket. Out with 11% profit. Best trade in a while.

New Watches:
NTRS (IT, Red Arrows Search) Premarket down 1.5%

Edit: The sp500 moved down another 4 points during this session (on a 12 point range) so for now we're still downward biased. Monday's are almost always up days so we could take some hits on short positions on monday. TLs: Weekly is still split, 1 and 2 days are both negative.

Har - slightly up against us.
Jdsu = up .5%; No signal changes
mmrf - up 7% to .13. Not significant and no signal changes
nnvc - no change
bvn - up slightly - no decision change
ntrs (watch) started down and recovered through the day. may still be good short candidate




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