Investing Thoughts

Last night I got out of TNA (mostly) before the jobs report. Today, need to decide on a new direction.

Big picture: The SP500 is at 1120.77 this morning (-5 points) after the unemployment report. The SP500 has spent the last 13 weeks under the Trend Line. I use two different Trend lines and expect both to be breached before making a decision. It's actually sitting on the reversal decision line (pink) but about 11 points short of the second one. So, we could treat this a couple of different ways. We could wait to see if it crosses above which would generate a new buy signal on the SP500. Or, we could trust the TL and expect that this is the top of the range. The second option lines up better with the latest news of the day (negative unemployment news).

The Asian markets provide no insight today but the European markets are all down between .5-1%. The 10T note yield is dropping this morning (2.90) meaning again that people are moving money into Treasuries (and other bond funds).

The Daily SP500 is above the daily TL and has been for 21 sessions. At 1121, it would have to drop to about 1091 to create a true TL Sell Trigger. However, it is appearing to become parabolic. The 200 days SMA (~1115) would provide support.

Normally, taking the thoughts that the weekly is bumping resistance, the daily is parabolic up and the news of the day is negative, I would consider a TZA buy. But, the market is only slightly responding to this. TZA at 10:15a is only up 1.5%. TNA daily is TL up with vortex support.

Individual positions:

Drys - daily up strong at 4.94 reversal at 4.41. 200 day resistance at 5.55. continue long. set stop at 4.44.

Banr (JM - reg bank WA)- Daily up at 2.33, reverse 2.10. JM Target=3.25. Stop at 2.08

mmrf (health records) - Today (.14) released letter to investors about upcoming prospects. Sounds great (PR is) but I will hold. Even .01 move is 8%.

nnvc - in TL sell mode. Today at 1.17. Thinking about putting more in to average down. Not yet. Maybe on a new move up.

IPXL (LNav)- supposed to double in the blink of an eye from 17.01. Now at 16.99.

Sold LPSN at 7.05. Today down to 6.73. Good sell.

MON - @ 60.89. Up 13.5% since purchase. Still moving up. 200d Resistance at 68.

At this point, I can find no changes to make. We'll watch how this plays out today. If we see a huge drop today, we could go long (TNA) at close to take advantage of the bounce and Monday's normal optimism.